2012 Gus Rankings: Bowl Edition

Want to know how Gus would perform in a bowl pick-em pool?  So do we.  Here's how he'd pick his winners and assign his confidence points.  (The final Gus Rankings are here, which incorporate last weekend's Army/Navy game.)  Confidence points are assigned in parenthesis by virtue of the difference in points in the Gus Rankings.  For games with the same difference in points, confidence points are then assigned by difference in ranking.  If that was the same, then the game with the higher ranked pair received more confidence (Gus is decidedly risk-preferring).  And Syracuse and West Virginia have the exact same record and the exact same number of points...so Gus claimed his Mountaineer roots for the last confidence wager.

Addendum: By request, here are the final conference rankings:

1. SEC: 17.43
2. Big 12: 12.30
3. Big 10: 9.00
4. Pac-12: 8.25
5. Big East: 1.75
6. ACC: -3.25
7. MAC: -7.95
8. WAC: -8.43
9. MWC: -10.40
10. Sun Belt: -10.50
11. C-USA: -19.33

New Mexico				Nevada vs. Arizona	Winner: Arizona (29)
Potato				Toledo vs. Utah State	Winner: Utah State (9)
Poinsietta				San Diego State vs. BYU	Winner: San Diego State (26)
St. Petersburg				Ball State vs. UCF	Winner: Ball State (18)
New Orleans				East Carolina vs. Louisiana-Lafayette	Winner: Louisiana-Lafayette (10)
Las Vegas				Boise State vs. Washington	Winner: Boise State (21)
Hawaii				SMU vs. Fresno State	Winner: Fresno State (33)
Little Caesars				Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan	Winner: Western Kentucky (17)
Military				San Jose State vs. Bowling Green	Winner: San Jose State (32)
Belk				Duke vs. Cincinnati	Winner: Cincinnati (30)
Holiday				UCLA vs. Baylor	Winner: UCLA (22)
Independence				Louisiana-Monroe vs. Ohio	Winner: Louisiana-Monroe (13)
Russell Athletic				Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers	Winner: Rutgers (28)
Texas				Minnesota vs. Texas Tech	Winner: Texas Tech (23)
Armed Forces				Rice vs. Air Force	Winner: Air Force (8)
Fight Hunger				Arizona State vs. Navy	Winner: Navy (24)
Pinstripe				Syracuse vs. West Virginia	Winner: West Virginia (1)
Alamo				Texas vs. Oregon State	Winner: Oregon State (15)
Buffalo Wild Wings				Michigan State vs. TCU	Winner: Michigan State (11)
Music City				Vanderbilt vs. NC State	Winner: Vanderbilt (19)
Sun				Georgia Tech vs. USC	Winner: USC (27)
Liberty				Iowa State vs. Tulsa	Winner: Tulsa (31)
Chick-fil-A				Clemson vs. LSU	Winner: LSU (12)
Heart of Dallas				Purdue vs. Oklahoma State	Winner: Oklahoma State (25)
Gator				Mississippi State vs. Northwestern	Winner: Northwestern (14)
Capital One				Georgia vs. Nebraska	Winner: Nebraska (7)
Outback				South Carolina vs. Michigan	Winner: South Carolina (16)
Rose				Wisconsin vs. Stanford	Winner: Stanford (35)
Orange				Northern Illinois vs. Florida State	Winner: Northern Illinois (2)
Sugar				Florida vs. Louisville	Winner: Florida (34)
Fiesta				Oregon vs. Kansas State	Winner: Oregon (3)
Cotton				Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma	Winner: Oklahoma (5)
Compass				Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi	Winner: Pittsburgh (4)
GoDaddy.com				Kent State vs. Arkansas State	Winner: Kent State (6)
BCS Championship				Notre Dame vs. Alabama	Winner: Notre Dame (20)

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 14

Here are the final Gus Rankings of the year.  (Army plays Navy next week but that should have no bearing on either end of the rankings.)  Notre Dame maintains a stranglehold on the top spot.  Stanford, Florida, Ohio State and Alabama round out the top 5.  Notre Dame claims the Gus National Title easily with a win over Alabama in the National Championship Game, though also has a fair chance to claim the GNT even with a loss to Alabama depending on how the remaining bowl games shake out.  A Florida win over Louisville presents the strongest threat to Notre Dame's top spot.  We shall see how it all shakes out!

On the other end of the spectrum, New Mexico State claims their own national title-- Gus' Worst Team in America.  New Mexico State edged out Southern Mississippi over the last weekend; perennial favorites Akron and Massachusetts finished just behind the Aggies.

As these are the final Gus Rankings, Gus would have the BCS as follows:

National Championship Game: Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champions)
Rose Bowl: Wisconsin (Big 10 champion) vs. Florida (At-large)
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State (Big 12 champion) vs. Oregon (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. San Jose State (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Louisville (Big East champion)

The National Title Game features the top two teams, Notre Dame and Stanford (technically, Stanford and Florida are tied-- if you put Florida in the title game, simply swap Florida for Stanford).  As Stanford is the Pac-12 winner, the Rose Bowl gets first choice in replacing them and the highest remaining team is Florida.  They would face Wisconsin, automatic qualifiers from the Big 10.

The Fiesta Bowl gets the next choice of teams.  Kansas State, champions of the Big 12, automatically qualify.  The next highest remaining eligible team is Oregon at #6.  Alabama automatically makes the Sugar Bowl as SEC champions; the Sugar Bowl is left to choose between two other automatic qualifiers-- Louisville as Big East champions, and...San Jose State!  (Gus overlooked the Spartans last week on the incorrect assumption that a non-BCS-conference automatic qualifier needed to be a conference champion.  No such requirement exists.)  Everyone knows Northern Illinois' story by now, and they do finish at #16 in the final Gus Rankings...but San Jose State outpaces them at #14, and both teams are well ahead of Big 10 champion Wisconsin (#37) and Big East champion Louisville (#29).  SJSU, as the highest remaining eligible team, heads to the Sugar Bowl.  That leaves the Orange Bowl with Florida State (ACC champions) and Louisville.

Next week, we'll update the rankings to capture Army/Navy and pick the winners of every bowl game.

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 13

Here are the updated Gus Rankings.  Notre Dame still holds the top spot, followed by Florida, Ohio State, Stanford and Oregon.

At the other end of the spectrum, Southern Mississippi holds a slim one point advantage over Massachusetts for the last spot.  Southern Mississippi has the distinction of being the only FBS team to schedule all 12 of their games against FBS opponents and lose them all.  Don't sleep on the Aggies of New Mexico State, however-- they have one remaining game next weekend against 8-loss Texas State.  A loss there should clinch the bottom spot for the perennial last spot contenders.

Here are the updated Gus BCS predictions (check the rules and assumptions from last week):


National Championship Game: Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Florida (At-large)
Rose Bowl: Nebraska (Big 10 Champion) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champion)
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State (Big 12 champion) vs. Oregon (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. Kent State (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Rutgers (Big East champion)

Following the letter of the BCS law, Kent State makes it by virtue of being in the top 16, winning their conference and finishing ahead of Rutgers/Louisville.

Swap Florida and Alabama and that's exactly how I see things shaking out after this weekend.

Also interesting to note that unless something weird happens this weekend, 3 of the top 4 teams in the final BCS rankings will not only have not won a conference title, they won't have played in a conference championship game.  Notre Dame isn't in a conference, and both Florida and Oregon's one-loss kept them from their respective conference championships.

As a side note: What if Navy and/or Army were undefeated and a factor in the BCS?  The point is moot-- the current structure of the BCS allows only 40-50 of the 124 FBS teams the ability to win the title, and Army/Navy aren't in that minority-- but would the BCS decision be pushed back by a week?

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 12

Here are this week's Gus Rankings.  Notre Dame holds a sizable advantage over #2 Ohio State.  Stanford finds itself at #3 after their win over Oregon, Nebraska sits at #4 and Alabama is at #5.

At the bottom of the spectrum, Southern Mississippi charges to a one point edge over Akron.  Since Southern Mississippi finishes with 7-loss Memphis, Akron finishes with 3-loss Toledo, and Massachusetts ends with 6-loss Central Michigan, the Golden Eagles seem to be in line to take the title of worst FBS team.

At this stage of the game, it's fun to project whom Gus would place into each of the BCS game.  The bowl lineup is as follows:

National Championship Game - BCS #1 vs. BCS #2
Rose Bowl - Ben Ten Conference Champion vs. Pac-12 Conference Champion
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 Conference Champion vs. At-large
Sugar Bowl - SEC Champion vs. At-large
Orange Bowl - ACC Champion vs. At-large

Note that the Big East Conference champion does not automatically qualify for a particular bowl, so they can be viewed as a mandatory at-large.

Should a conference champion qualify for the National Championship game from a conference that is tied to another bowl, that bowl gets first choice on replacing that team from the eligible pool of teams.  If both teams are conference champions, the #1 BCS team is replaced first.

In 2013, at-large spots are filled in the following order: Fiesta, Sugar, Orange

Conference champions are determined by the highest spot on the Gus Rankings should any discrepancies arise.

So that gives us the Gus BCS:

National Championship Game: Notre Dame (At-large) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champion)
Rose Bowl: Nebraska (Big 10 Champion) vs. Oregon (At-large replacement for Stanford)
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State (Big 12 champion) vs. Florida (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. Clemson (At-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Rutgers (Big East champion)

Notice that Clemson is higher than Florida State in the Gus Rankings but cannot win the ACC as they are not in the ACC Championship Game.  But not a bad slate!  As far as my two cents, I think we end up seeing the following-- we'll see how things can change over the next two weeks:

National Championship Game: Notre Dame vs. Alabama
Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs. Stanford
Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: LSU vs. Clemson
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Rutgers

A few notes:

- I think Florida State beats Florida this weekend in Tallahassee.  That should eliminate Florida from BCS consideration.

- Stanford beating UCLA two weeks in a row would be impressive; should that not happen, Stanford will be out of the BCS (well, they could lose next week, Oregon State could beat Oregon, then Stanford could come back and beat UCLA in the Pac-12 title game).  The real issue for the Fiesta Bowl is if Oregon makes it to the Rose Bowl.  Let's say they want to take a big name to offset the less-than-big-name of Kansas State; Oregon fits that role beautifully and they'd take Oregon in a heartbeat if they could.  On top of that, they should be able to since they choose from the at-large pool first.  Only the Sugar Bowl would likely have the chance to beat them to Oregon, but that doesn't really make sense for anyone involved for Oregon to end up in New Orleans.

But the Fiesta Bowl can't take Oregon if they end up as Pac-12 champions.  There shouldn't be any SEC teams left at that point; one will likely be in the title game, and the Sugar Bowl will get the first replacement pick and likely take another SEC team.  Conferences can't have any more than two teams, so that eliminates Texas A&M.  Oklahoma would be an interesting pick for a rematch with Kansas State, and I wouldn't normally think them to do that...but who is left?  Clemson to Tempe?  Rutgers?  Oregon State would have three losses in this scenario so they're out, Texas would as well.  This scenario probably won't happen but it's definitely feasible...that would be an interesting decision to make.  If I had to guess, I'd probably say Oklahoma, but the Fiesta Bowl folks can't be liking that too much.  They just can't expect Clemson to draw across the country, and you can say the same for Rutgers in light of the UConn experience a few years ago.

- I suppose you could make the argument for a two-loss Georgia (or maybe Florida) team in the Sugar Bowl instead of LSU.  Georgia would have made the SEC title game and had a better in-conference record, but (1) LSU is the home-state team and (2) it's not like the Sugar Bowl has looked to find the best remaining teams to fill their slots in the past (see: Michigan, 12 months ago).

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 11

Here are this week's Gus Rankings.  Notre Dame maintains the top spot with a healthy 7 point edge over Ohio State.  Alabama is third after last week's loss to Texas A&M, Oregon is fourth and Kansas State fifth.

At the bottom of the rankings, Massachusetts scored their first win of the season last week at Akron, pushing the Zips to the bottom of the rankings.  Not deterred, New Mexico State trails Akron by only two points for the title of Gus' worst team in the land.

Conference rankings are as follows:

1. SEC: 13.07
2. Big 12: 9.20
3. Big 10: 6.92
4. Pac-12: 6.67
5. Big East: 0.13
6. ACC: -0.58
7. MAC: -6.83
8. WAC: -7.00
9. Sun Belt: -7.30
10: MWC: -8.20
11. C-USA: -14.50

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 10

Here are this week's Gus Rankings.  Notre Dame still holds the top spot after its narrow win over Pittsburgh last weekend.  Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon and Kansas State round out the top 5.

On the bottom end, New Mexico State surged into the bottom position with their loss to 7-loss Auburn.  The lead is not likely to last, however-- 2-loss San Jose State is on the schedule next week for NMSU while the eagerly awaited Akron/Massachusetts battle looms at InfoCision Field.

2012 Gus Rankings: Week 9

This week's Gus Rankings are here.  (And our apologies, but last week's rankings got lost in the shuffle of travel.  You can find those here.)

Notre Dame finds itself alone at the top yet again, resting on a three point edge over second place Ohio State.  Alabama is two points behind the Buckeyes in the third spot, which itself has a six point edge over co-No. 4's Kansas State and Oregon.

At the other end of the spectrum, Massachusetts holds a two point edge over Akron for the title of the worst team in America.  November 10th can't come soon enough!  Your faithful blogger is not above driving the two hours to witness the Game of the Century, either.  Good seats still available!

Conference rankings are as follows, with the ACC becoming the first BCS conference (if my memory is correct) to capture a negative average team score in any week:

1. SEC: 7.929
2. Big 12: 7.000
3. Big 10: 5.417
4. Pac-12: 5.083
5. Big East: 0.250
6. ACC: -0.500
7. Sun Belt: -4.500
8. WAC: -4.857
9. MWC: -5.500
10. MAC: -5.583
11. C-USA: -9.833