Tuesday, September 09, 2014

2014 Gus Rankings: Introducing Gus++ and Week 2 Rankings

College football season is upon us, and that means Year 6 of the Gus Rankings!  As we did last year, we've added a new wrinkle to the calculations this year to try and better capture the nature of game outcomes.  The goal is to try to build a ranking system from the ground up that is as objective and as transparent as possible.

Last year, we considered the margin of victory when determining the points that teams get from games.  Instead of having a last second field goal swing a team from a win (and the points generated from a win) to a loss (and the points subtracted from a loss), we generated an algorithm that translated a final point differential into a fraction of a win and a fraction of a loss.  (It was at this point that you fell in love with the inverse hyperbolic sine function.)  Does it perfectly capture the dynamics of a game?  No; we aren't ever going to be able to capture all of the nuances of a game down to a single number.  But it was a step in the right direction.  Also, overtime games were also viewed as a 50% win and a 50% loss-- why judge some games by more than sixty minutes and others by sixty minutes exactly?  We kept everything the same outside of that from the original rankings-- and so that was Gus+.

This year's adjustment corrects for what I consider to be an oversight of last year's system.  At the base of the original Gus Rankings was the idea that you gain points equal to the number of wins the teams you defeated had, and lost points equal to the number of losses of the teams that defeated you.  That never changed.  What changed was that you now didn't always get the entirety of your opponent's win total if you defeated them; if the score was sufficiently close, then you only got a fraction of the win total or loss total.  This year, we're keeping track of the effective wins and effective losses that a team accrues throughout the year.  So underneath every team's reported, on-the-stadium-program record is their effective record-- the sum of the partial wins and losses that they accumulate throughout the year.  It is from your opponents' effective wins and effective losses by which you now gain or lose points.  It's called Gus++.  If you like the name, thanks!  If you don't, it was Rob Holub's idea.

A note of thanks goes out to my graduate assistant, Kevin Gormley, for wrangling a lot of this together into a workable spreadsheet.  We're fairly certain the wrinkles have been ironed out; once we are good on that margin, we'd like to be able to report all three iterations of Gus Rankings for comparison and, you know, because data.  Onwards and upwards!  Comments, complaints, grievances, etc. are welcomed as always.

Without further ado, here are this week's Gus++ Rankings.  Oklahoma nabs the top spot; UMass stakes itself to the early "lead" for the worst team in the country.  Interesting results throughout!

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 15

Here are the final regular season Gus+ Rankings.  (Army/Navy still needs to be added after they play on Saturday.)

If Gus were determining BCS pairings, conference champions remained and selections were made based upon the final Gus Rankings:

National Championship Game: Florida State vs. Stanford
Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Missouri vs. Arizona State
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. Oklahoma State
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Central Florida

And, as expected, Miami (OH) runs away with the worst team in America award by nearly 11 points.

Worst Gus team to make a bowl game?  Colorado State at #88.

Wednesday, December 04, 2013

2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 14 (and 13!)

Gus took the week off last week!  Here are the Week 13 rankings.

Here are this week's rankings.

Prior to the weekend's conference championship games, the Gus BCS looks as follows:

National Championship Game: Missouri (SEC champion) vs. Florida State (ACC Champion)
Rose Bowl: Ohio State (Big 10 champion) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champion)
Orange Bowl: Arizona State (At-large) vs. Baylor (At-large)
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (At-large) vs. Northern Illinois (At-large)
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (Big 12 champion) vs. Central Florida (AAC champion)

For a breakdown of the selection procedures, check here.

How do I think it's going to shake out?  I predict the following:

National Championship Game: Florida State vs. Ohio State
Rose Bowl: Stanford vs. Michigan State
Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Baylor
Sugar Bowl: Missouri vs. Central Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Northern Illinois

Really on the fence about Michigan State or Baylor in the Rose Bowl; I'm thinking they go for the traditional Big 10/Pac-12 match-up, though a blow-out loss by Michigan State to Ohio State (and a Baylor win) might change that.  The last at-large spot seems to be between Baylor, Oregon, and Clemson.  I think the Orange Bowl goes with Baylor; there is a Big 12/Big 8 historical connection there, and the offense/defense match-up should generate some interest.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 12

Here are this week's Gus Rankings.  Florida State assumes the top spot, followed by Alabama, Missouri, Stanford and Baylor.

Is it too soon to crown Miami (OH) the worst team in FBS football?  Their lead for the bottom spot continues to widen.

Monday, November 11, 2013

2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 11

Here are this week's Gus Rankings. Alabama tops the rankings, followed by Stanford, Florida State, Missouri and Ohio State.  And, in what has become a weekly certainty, Miami (OH) holds a nearly 10 point lead on the bottom spot in the rankings.

As the end of the season is approaching, it's time for our first foray into the Gus BCS projections!  Should the season end today and the Gus+ were used in place of the BCS, which teams would go to which BCS bowls?

The champions of the following conferences automatically qualify for the following bowls:

• Atlantic Coast Conference - Orange Bowl
• Big Ten Conference - Rose Bowl
• Big 12 Conference - Fiesta Bowl
• Pac-12 Conference - Rose Bowl
• Southeastern Conference - Sugar Bowl

The BCS Bowls choose to fill their at-large spots in the following order: Orange, Sugar, Fiesta.  Further, a team taken from an automatic bowl qualification to play in the National Championship Game gets replaced before the at-large slots are filled in the order of finish in the final rankings.

So, without further ado...

National Championship Game: Alabama (SEC champion) vs. Stanford (Pac-12 champion)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (ACC champion) vs. Oregon (At-large #1)
Sugar Bowl: Missouri (NCG replacement #1) vs. Brigham Young (At-large #2)
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor (Big 12 champion) vs. Houston (At-large #3)
Rose Bowl: Ohio State (Big 10 champion) vs. Clemson (NCG replacement #2)

Alabama and Stanford are the top two teams in the rankings; Florida State, Baylor and Ohio State are the remaining conference champions (as they are the highest ranked in either of their conferences), and fall into their assigned slots.  Houston-- the highest ranked team from the AAC-- qualifies automatically but it chosen as an at-large for a bowl.  The Sugar Bowl, having lost Alabama, choose its replacement first and goes with the highest ranked eligible un-claimed team-- and that's #4 Missouri.  The Rose Bowl selected next to fill the void created by Stanford, and they select #7 Clemson.  The Orange Bowl gets the first at-large choice and selects #8 Oregon.  Teh Sugar bowl chooses next and is forced to pass on #9 Texas A&M (no more than two teams from the SEC), #10 Virginia Tech (no more than two teams from the ACC),  #11 Auburn (no more than two teams from the SEC), and settles on #12 Brigham Young.  The Fiesta Bowl chooses last and must choose the champion from the AAC, #18 Houston.

Tuesday, November 05, 2013

2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 10

Here are this week's Gus Rankings.  Florida State's victory of Miami last weekend give them a one-hundredth of a point edge over Missouri.  Ohio State, Stanford and Alabama round out the top 5.

Surprise of the week?  BYU slides in at #6, ahead of, among others, undefeated Oregon and Baylor.

Potential BCS teams Fresno State (31) and Northern Illinois (39) sit well outside of the Gus+ Top 16.

And, at the other end of the spectrum, Miami (OH) keeps its stranglehold on the final spot with four games to play.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

2013 Gus Rankings: Gus+ Week 9

Here are this week's Gus Rankings.  Alabama assumes the top spot, followed by Ohio State, Stanford, Missouri and Florida State.  The lowest ranked unbeaten team is Northern Illinois at 38; the highest ranked team without a win is Purdue at 101.  (Do note that the Boilermakers lone win on the season came against FCS Indiana State.)

Once again, Miami (OH) refuses to budge from its place at the bottom of the rankings.